James Cameron's absolutely correct about the biggest challenge facing Avatar: The Way Of Water, but the movie will successfully overcome it. In an interview with The New York Times, Cameron recognized the 12-year gap between Avatar and Avatar 2 as the sequel's biggest obstacle. Avatar was groundbreaking when it was released in 2009, demonstrating the immersive capabilities of 3D technology. Over a decade later, Avatar is still the highest-grossing movie of all time, but with so much time having passed, Cameron is right to be concerned about The Way of Water's potential for replicating the success of its predecessor.
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This concern is reflected in the box office projections for Avatar 2, which are significantly lower than the original movie's opening weekend. The cinema landscape has changed considerably since Avatar's release in 2009, populated with legacy sequels, cinematic universes, and superhero movies. Despite this, however, none of the hugely successful Marvel movies have toppled Avatar from its position as the highest-grossing movie of all time. Avengers: Endgame came close, but fell short by just over $100 million, suggesting that Avatar has a greater commercial appeal, which bodes well for Avatar 2's potential box office success.
Avatar was released in 2009 when theater chains were undergoing a transition from analog to digital projection. Cameron's use of 3D was a dynamic showcase for the capabilities of this new technology and was the movie's major selling point. In 2022, the 3D bubble has long since burst, so James Cameron and the studio are right to be cautious about Avatar 2's box office potential, but there are also many reasons to be optimistic.
James Cameron Is Right: Avatar 2's Big Problem Is… Who Cares?
In the decade since Avatar's release, opinion on the movie has cooled somewhat. While it's still regarded as a groundbreaking visual spectacle, the derivative plot and underdeveloped characters hold it back from being classed as a truly great movie. As Avatar 2 brings back Jake (Sam Worthington) and others from the original movie, it's unlikely that they'll be much of a draw for audiences in the way that the return of Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick's was earlier in 2022.
Similarly, 3D is much less of a big deal in 2022 than it was in 2009. The long gap between Avatar and The Way Of Water has meant that the incredible creative possibilities provided by Avatar weren't improved upon in any substantial way. The burden of making 3D commercially and creatively viable shouldn't have solely rested on James Cameron's shoulders, but many of the retro-fitted 3D movies that followed Avatar contributed to a consensus that 3D was a studio gimmick to make more money at the box office. While Avatar was a huge commercial success, its use of 3D was driven more by a desire to create a fully immersive digital world and a groundbreaking theatrical experience than it was by commercial factors. It remains to be seen if the effects of Avatar 2 will entice audiences in the same way as they did with the original.
Why Avatar 2 Will Likely Be A Big Success
Despite the long gap and shift in perception of the original, early signs for Avatar 2 are promising. According to Cameron's interview in The New York Times, the trailer got 148 million views on YouTube within 24 hours. Those figures represent a demonstrable interest in the sequel, which has only been bolstered by Avatar's recent theatrical re-release, which had an opening weekend gross of $30 million, globally. Avatar's re-release in theaters was a perfect opportunity to remind audiences what it was that was so appealing about the original. The appeal of James Cameron's blockbuster smash was never its derivative anti-colonial and ecological parable, or its paper-thin heroes and villains, it was the richly realized world of Pandora.
James Cameron's Avatar sequels will explore further depths of his fictional world that will further revolutionize filmmaking techniques. The footage released so far gives audiences an idea of what to expect from Cameron's depiction of Pandora's underwater ecosystem, and it's every bit as dazzling as the forests of the original movie. In a box office landscape stuffed with familiar legacy characters from the worlds of comic books and beloved movie franchises, Pandora represents something new for audiences.
James Cameron loves cinema and is passionate about the theatrical experience. That passion has been realized in many of his previous films and contributes to the massive box office success overall. Cameron understands that his Avatar sequel is risky but the long gap between his original movie and the sequel may prove to be a help, rather than a hindrance. If Avatar 2 had come out three years after the first one, Cameron would still be working with the same technology, albeit with some slight upgrades. If it had failed, audiences would have likely felt that the sequel was a cash-in that failed to replicate the original movie's sense of wonder. As technology has developed in the intervening decade, Avatar: The Way of Water feels like a movie that's coming out at the right time to achieve Cameron's vision. Not just a follow-up that's capitalizing on the success of the highest-grossing movie of all time. In a box office landscape dominated by interconnected cinematic universes and hastily dashed out sequels, the Avatar sequel will be a breath of fresh air for those audiences disillusioned by the state of modern blockbusters.