The early projections for Avatar: The Way of Water indicated it may gross less than the original film from 2009. After many delays, Avatar: The Way of Water is finally set to open in theaters on December 16, making it a thirteen-year gap between the original film. 20th Century Studios and parent company Disney have begun the marketing push for the sequel, showcasing an exclusive scene from the movie with the recent re-release of Avatar.
Expectations are high for Avatar: The Way of Water as the original Avatar was a surprise smash hit when it opened in December 2009. While it started off with a respectable $77 million opening weekend, the movie held strong over the weeks and was number 1 at the box office for seven consecutive weeks and closed out its original domestic run with $773 million. At the time Avatar was the highest-grossing movie of all time domestically which means many are watching to see if Avatar: The Way of Water can accomplish a similar milestone and director James Cameron has been candid about the film's box office potential.
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Anticipation for Avatar: The Way of Water is high but it appears based on early box office tracking it may not reach the heights of its predecessor. According to Variety, Avatar: The Way of Water is expected to gross $650 domestically. An impressive feat for any movie, but that would bring it $123 million under Avatar's domestic box office total.
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The box office drop between Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water is comparable to Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Star Wars: The Last Jedi, as the first film was an unprecedented smash hit at the box office while the sequel grossed less even though it was still a hit by every conceivable metric. The only difference would be that Star Wars: The Last Jedi was the highest-grossing film of 2017 at the domestic box office, yet, with $650 million, Avatar: The Way of Water would be second behind Top Gun: Maverick.
Nobody could have predicted that Top Gun: Maverick would do as well at the box office as it has, and that also might be the case for Avatar: The Way of Water. The long-awaited nature of the sequel combined with the holiday release slate that helped the first Avatar and the Star Wars sequel trilogy installments certainly is working in Avatar: The Way of Water's favor. Rival studio's decision to delay films like Shazam! Fury of the Gods, Super Mario Bros., and Kraven the Hunter means Avatar: The Way of Water has December and January pretty much to itself. The first major compeition it has will not come for two whole months until the release of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Avatar: The Way of Water might still manage to match its predecessor and if not, could come very close.