The 2023 box-office battle that was promised between Star Wars and Star Trek now looks to be almost impossible. Both franchises have been behemoths in the world of sci-fi cinema, and are often considered the closest thing the other has to a rival within the genre. This rivalry looked to be coming to a head in a way that hasn't happened previously, with both franchises putting out major releases in 2023.
The Star Trek franchise is arguably more wide-reaching than Star Wars, having begun with Star Trek: The Original Series in 1966 and still going strong to this day. Star Wars began shortly after in 1977 and, much like its rival, is more active than ever. Only twice since the inception of both franchises have release dates coincided with one another (at least theatrically) with 2002 seeing the release of Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones and Star Trek: Nemesis, and 2016 seeing both Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Star Trek Beyond releasing.
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In 2023, however, the third head-to-head at the box office promised to be even bigger, with both Star Trek 4 and Star Wars: Rogue Squadron currently holding December 22, 2023 release dates. This would be the first time in history that both franchises release films on the same date, pitting the two against each other in an unprecedented way. However, despite both still holding that release date, it is looking more and more unlikely that 2023's biggest box office battle will come to pass as both films may not be ready for release on time. This, naturally, would jeopardize what promised to be an intriguing and undoubtedly controversial contest.
Will Star Trek 4 Still Be Released In December 2023?
In 2021, Matt Shakman was hired to direct Star Trek 4 with Paramount trying hard to secure Shakman as director after his work on WandaVision for Marvel Studios. The film was set to be directed from a script written by Josh Friedman and Cameron Squires, based on an earlier draft by Lindsey Beer and Geneva Robertson. Initially, the film's release date was set for June 2023 with the film being fast-tracked for production in early-to-mid 2022. However, to make room for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Star Trek 4's release date was pushed back to December 22, 2023.
With Shakman set to direct, and the main cast of the first three Kelvin Timeline films in negotiations to return, hitting the release date of December 2023 looked likely. However, in August 2022, it was announced that Matt Shakman had left the project after entering negotiations with Marvel Studios to direct 2024's Fantastic Four. Paramount stated that the timing wouldn't line up for Shakman to be able to direct both projects, stating that they were looking for a new director instantly as Star Trek 4 was a top priority project for the studio. With the film still being of high priority for Paramount, there is still a glimmer of hope that it could stick to its current release date.
However, it is unlikely given the difficulties Star Trek 4 has faced up to this point. Given how none of the cast had seen a script for the film as of March 2022, alongside Shakman's departure from the project, it is highly unlikely that a new director is found, the script is finalized, and production begins and wraps all within the space of a year. With all of this still needing to happen, it is safe to assume that Star Trek 4's release date will be pushed back into 2024 at the earliest.
Will Rogue Squadron Still Be Released In December 2023?
Although the chances of Rogue Squadron still being released in December 2023 are remote, it is for different reasons than Star Trek 4. Star Trek 4 has undergone many changes in development and release date, yet with Rogue Squadron, the development seems to have been largely unproblematic. In 2020, Patty Jenkins was announced to direct Rogue Squadron as the next Star Wars movie with a script from Matthew Robinson. Production was then set to begin in 2022 with Jenkins leaving some other projects to focus solely on Rogue Squadron and Wonder Woman 3. In April 2022, Disney confirmed that the release date was still the same as was initially announced for the film.
However, only a month later, Lucasfilm President Kathleen Kennedy announced that Rogue Squadron had been pushed to the side citing further work on the script being needed. Kennedy also announced that Taika Waititi's untitled Star Wars film would be the next to release. With the latter still not having a release date, it is therefore unlikely it releases before 2023 meaning that, if Waititi's is the next released movie in the franchise as per Kennedy, Rogue Squadron will not hit its December 2023 release.
Why New Star Trek & Star Wars Movies Both Have Big Problems
One of the main reasons behind Star Trek 4's problems is the constant changes in development. Since the announcement of Star Trek 4 in 2016, the film has seen four potential directors: Quentin Tarantino, S.J. Clarkson, Noah Hawley, and Matt Shakman. All of these changes in personnel and script, all without tying the cast of the Kelvin Timeline to the film completely, have caused Star Trek 4 to enter a minor development hell. Also, with recent years seeing most franchises find more success on streaming services rather than cinematically, partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the direction of a franchise like Star Trek is unclear, with many Star Trek series' released in recent years.
Star Wars faces a similar problem. The success of shows like The Mandalorian, The Book of Boba Fett, Obi-Wan Kenobi, and The Clone Wars, led many to believe Star Wars' future success lies in the world of TV rather than film. The less-than-stellar reaction to Disney's sequel trilogy further cemented this idea, with Lucasfilm opting to produce more Star Wars shows for Disney+ such as Ahsoka, Andor, and The Acolyte. Because of these reasons, it is highly unlikely that the Star Wars/Star Trek battle of 2023 will commence as many hoped it would.